Jakarta, APBI-ICMA: CNBCIndonesia.com April 1 2019 reported that the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that Indonesia's coal exports could decline by 15.7% in 2023. This decline is inseparable from the slowing demand for coal, one of which is caused by changes climate.
Based on the IEA study, it is estimated that coal demand in China will drop from 2,752 million tons in 2017 to 2,673 million tons in 2023. About half of this demand is coal for non-coking coal, estimated coal for power plants in China will reach a peak of 1,350 million tons in 2020 and will drop to 1,230 million tons by 2030 or around 9%.
The Executive Director of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) Hendra Sinadia acknowledged, indeed in the future global market conditions will become a challenge in the sustainability of the coal industry. However, he said there was no need to worry because several attempts had been made to overcome this.
For example, continued Hendra, in terms of overcoming the issue of climate change, APBI has tried to work together with the government, to encourage good mining practices. It's not easy, because there are thousands of mining permits that determine which ones are correct.
"In addition, since 2007, KLHK has formed a former mining reclamation forum. The forum is quite active with KLHK and ESDM, increasing awareness in our members regarding the management of ex-mining land," Hendra said at a discussion in Jakarta on Monday (1/4 / 2019).
So, said Hendra, his party considered the prospect of coal going forward. From the domestic side, the Indonesian coal industry is undergoing a transformation, to increase added value.
"So China is certainly a prospective market and indeed is declining, but fortunately China still needs good Indonesian coal, as well as India," Hendra concluded.
As for information, in India, although coal needs will increase, it is estimated that the volume of coal imports will drop to the level of 13.4% of total consumption from 2022-2023 due to increased domestic coal production.
Meanwhile, coal demand in Japan and Korea is expected to fall by 3% in 2023 compared to 2017, although based on the Basic Blueprint for Power Supply document released by the South Korean government late last year, the composition of electricity from coal will drop from 45.3% in 2017 to 36.1% in 2030.